Nov
2
Real Estate Market Doldrums
Posted by under For Buyers, For Sellers, General Information
The recent sub-prime mortgage melt-down has compounded the already multi-faceted troubles in today’s real estate market. I believe the real problems didn’t start in July when sub-prime lender s started dropping out of sight, but rather at the onset of the refi-frenzy a few years ago. For instance, homeowners, home sellers, home buyers and even some REALTORS and appraisers have all contributed to the real estate economy we see today.
Homeowners, who may not have really needed to take any money out of their home’s equity, saw they might get a lower interest rate if they refinanced, so they did. Many homeowners refinanced more than once. There seemed to be an unspoken challenge to have a rate lower than ‘the Jones’s’.
Home sellers may have also, however unknowingly, contributed by participating with less than scrupulous lenders who asked them to cooperate with an increased sale price, after the fact. There is nothing wrong with the buyer and seller coming to whatever price and terms they wish, but when those terms are later changed in order to manipulate or misrepresent the facts to the the investor providing the funds, it can be called loan fraud. Loan fraud has, on a grand scale, played a big part in the ‘big picture’ we now see in the real estate market. It also tended to inflate property prices.
Home buyers, especially those who are first time homebuyers, want to make sure they know as much as possible and so they can choose from the best options before they’re ready to buy. One of those important choices is the interest rate. Home buyers, like homeowners, want their interest rate to be as low or lower than the one ’the Jones’s’ have. Buyers waited for rates to drop, and when the Fed’s began increasing the rate incrementally, buyers turned to ‘interest-only’ loans and ‘ARMs’ (adjustable rate mortgages), trading the safety net of ‘fixed rate’ mortgages for the bragging rights to a low rate or a low payment.
The loan fraud I mentioned earlier was made easier with the help of (either ignorant or participating) REALTORS and appraisers. Not all transactions involve one or more REALTORS, but virtually every transaction which depends on a loan from someone other than the seller, relies on the certified opinion of an appraiser.
Most REALTORS and appraisers I know are highly ethical and aware of their duties to the public and the industry, but there have been some major convictions over the last year and the IRS and FBI are looking into other cases even now. The FBI is involved because the fraud has involved the possibility of interstate crime and untold millions of dollars. I imagine the IRS is interested in meeting those who made money committing fraud, as they may need to report that income!
One mortgage lender I read about, was sentenced to prison for 39 fraudulent loans she made. I calculate that, if the average loan amount was $250,000, the investors who provided the funds lost close to 2 billion dollars. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that it only takes a few few top producing ‘bad guys’ to upset the apple cart!
So how long will we langor in these doldrums? The real estate environment we are living in today still offers very low interest rates, benefiting homeowners, sellers and buyers by helping to keep house payments low. Buyers have never had more homes to choose from and it’s been a long time since sellers have been as motivated to negotiate. FHA is stepping up with some viable refinance options for homeowners who need to be rescued from the ARMs. Sellers who can wait for Spring may fare well, especially those who are first to act.
When you’d like more information on how the market is doing in a specific neighborhood or even a specific property, contact me.
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